Read e-book online A Mathematical Theory of Arguments for Statistical Evidence PDF

By Paul-Andre Monney

ISBN-10: 3642517463

ISBN-13: 9783642517464

ISBN-10: 3790815276

ISBN-13: 9783790815276

The topic of this booklet is the reasoning less than uncertainty in response to sta­ tistical facts, the place the observe reasoning is taken to intend trying to find arguments in desire or opposed to specific hypotheses of curiosity. the type of reasoning we're utilizing consists of 2 points. the 1st one is electrified from classical reasoning in formal good judgment, the place deductions are made up of a data base of saw proof and formulation representing the area spe­ cific wisdom. during this ebook, the proof are the statistical observations and the final wisdom is represented by means of an example of a distinct type of sta­ tistical versions referred to as useful versions. the second one point offers with the uncertainty lower than which the formal reasoning happens. For this element, the speculation of tricks [27] is the precise instrument. essentially, we suppose that a few doubtful perturbation takes a selected worth after which logically eval­ uate the results of this assumption. the unique uncertainty in regards to the perturbation is then transferred to the results of the idea. this sort of reasoning is termed assumption-based reasoning. earlier than going into extra information about the content material of this publication, it would be fascinating to appear in brief on the roots and origins of assumption-based reasoning within the statistical context. In 1930, R. A. Fisher [17] outlined the inspiration of fiducial distribution because the results of a brand new kind of argument, in preference to the results of the older Bayesian argument.

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Extra resources for A Mathematical Theory of Arguments for Statistical Evidence

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E. it is an absorbing state of the chain. 4 Evidence About a Survival Rate 53 If p1m,O denotes the plausibility function of Hm,o, then plm,o(B) = (BIN)m for all BEe. As Hm,o is consonant, it is easy to compute the degree of plausibility of any hypothesis H <:;; because e plm,o(H) = max {plm,o(B) ; B E H}. This in turn allows us to compute the weight of evidence for any pair of hypotheses. For example, for the specific hypotheses HI and H2 defined above, the weight of evidence is which grows exponentially as the number of surviving babies increases.

Given the observation ~ = x, assuming w permits to infer that e* is in the subset Tx(w) of 8. e* rx p Fig. 2. A graphical representation of the reasoning process Now consider the case where the observation x does provide some knowledge about the random variable w. 36) is different from n. Only the elements of v x ( 8) are possible values for the outcome of the random variable w in view of the observation x. For this reason, the elements of Vx (8) are said to be compatible with the observation, whereas the elements of n - Vx (8) are said to be incompatible with the observation.

The set of possible values of w is n = {-1, + I} where -1 means that the pregnancy test is not reliable and +1 means that it is reliable. e. the test result indicates her true pregnancy status with probability r and it indicates the opposite of her true pregnancy status with probability 1 - r. Of course, this means that P(w = +1) = r, Now, w = +1 means that to the function ~ = P(w = -1) = 1 - r. 8 and w = -1 means that ~ = -8. e. This function f along with the probability r completely specify a functional model representing Jessica's pregnancy test problem.

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A Mathematical Theory of Arguments for Statistical Evidence by Paul-Andre Monney

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