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By Wolfe R.

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The 70-plus seats for which the party is privately hoping, against the 52 they won in 2001, are still some way from the tipping point of their dreams. But even that quite possible result could chill both Labour and Tory hopes. It would cost several top Conservatives their seats (half a dozen have close Lib Dem challengers) and dent the party's chances of a real comeback in five years' time. And Lib Dem inroads into traditional Labour territory coupled with a smaller government majority would threaten Tony Blair's ability to push ahead with radical reform of public services.

Remove the fear of Michael Howard in Downing Street, he thinks, and many more people will vote Lib Dem to give the government a kicking. The big question now for the Lib Dems is whether, as in previous elections, they will enjoy a surge in support once formal campaigning starts and the party starts getting a fairer share of television time. If after the first week of electioneering, the Lib Dems have moved up to around 25%, while the Tories have slipped back a couple of points, the “story” will be about Lib Dems catching the Tories up, Lord Rennard hopes.

Neither Mr Howard, nor the left-wing pundits who seized on the remark, seemed to understand the intellectual pedigree of the reference, and Mr Kruger was told not to stand. The disproportionate punishment of Mr Flight and Mr Kruger, neither of whom have said anything that many Tories do not think, makes Mr Howard look more panicky than decisive. com Seite 2 demoralises activists just when they are needed to knock on doors. Worse, it suggests that the Tories are prepared to cede to Labour a vital corner of the ideological battlefield.

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A case study on the choice, interpretation and checking of multilevel models for longitudinal binary by Wolfe R.


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